The Diplomatic Times Review

'Many People Believe the [Iraqi] Prime Minister Ought to be Changed'

"France's foreign minister risked fracturing his country's new relationship with America yesterday [August 26, 2007], by calling for Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, to be replaced," writes Telegraph.co.uk correspondent Peter Allen in an August 27, 2007, dispatch from Paris.

Mr. Allen noted that, "In an interview published in the American magazine Newsweek, Bernard Kouchner, who visited Baghdad last week, said:

I just had (Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State) on the phone 10 or 15 minutes ago, and I told her, 'Listen, he's got to be replaced'.

"Many people believe the prime minister ought to be changed. I don't know if that will go through though, because it seems President [George W] Bush is attached to Mr Maliki. But the government is not functioning.

"Last week," Mr. Allen recalled, [U.S.] President Bush defended the record of Mr Maliki, calling him "a good guy, a good man with a difficult job and I support him."

If were in Mr. al-Maliki's position I would take Mr. Bush's declaration of support with a grain of salt. He can't fix the mess the Americans created and now the Bush Administration is upset with him. In fact, no outsiders can fix it. However, the Iraqis will come to an accord once the Americans leave. They may fight among themselves for dominance but a stabilizing force, probably a strongman, will eventually emerge.

Iyad Allawi, reportedly the CIA's man in exile, fits the bill. Don't be surprised if Mr. al-Maliki is removed in a coup d'etat and Mr. Allawi reemerges in a pivotal role in Iraq.

By the way, the person to pay attention to when it comes to Mr. al-Maliki's political fate is Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, not Mr. Bush. He's the real ruler of Iraq. See "Crocker Disappointed With Progress."

To read more, please see "France calls for new Iraq prime minister." To read the Newsweek article on Mr. Kouchner, see "A Humanitarian-in-Chief."

Technorati tags: Bernard Kouchner, Nouri al-Maliki, Iyad Allawi, George W. Bush, Condoleeza Rice, Newsweek

Is Canada's Stephen Harper Mimicking Australia's Foreign Policy?

Canadian "Prime Minister Stephen Harper's trip to Australia next month will offer Canada's leader a chance to look back at what worked and what didn't with the person experts say is the real influence behind his approach to Canadian foreign policy, Australian Prime Minister John Howard," reports Lee Berthiaume in an August 22, 2007 report in Embassy, Canada's Foreign Policy Weekly.

Berthiaume said, "Since the Conservatives took power last year, critics, especially those in the opposition benches, have accused Mr. Harper of mimicking or following in the footsteps of U.S. President George W. Bush when deciding Canadian foreign policy."

"Mr. Harper's handling of Afghanistan, Canada's muted involvement at the United Nations and other multilateral fora, harsh words directed towards Cuba, strong support for Israel, and others have all prompted accusations that where Mr. Bush's Washington goes, Ottawa under the Conservatives follows," Berthiaume noted, adding:

"Yet experts on Australia say those accusations are wrong and that, in fact, Mr. Harper took a page from Mr. Howard's book when he was elected to power last year."

To read more, please see "Harper, Howard Meeting a Chance to Take Stock."

Technorati tags: Canada, Stephen Harper, Canadian Foreign Policy, John Howard, Australia

Spain's Shrinking International Profile

'A decade of soaring economic growth and corporate expansion overseas has put Spain in the big leagues, but the country's political profile is shrinking under the leadership" of Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, "a man deeply preoccupied with domestic reform and lacking in international experience," International Herald Tribune's correspondent Victoria Burnett reported in an August 17, 2007, dispatch. 

"He is not there," Ms. Burnett quotes José María de Areilza, a former foreign-policy adviser to Zapatero's predecessor José María Aznar, as saying. "It's as if he were not interested."

Maybe he's not. Not everyone wants to be a spectacle on the international stage. The Aznar government's vigorous support of the invasion of Iraq and Spain's participation in the U.S. occupation of Iraq and the consequences of that support may have convinced Mr. Zapatero that attending to domestic affairs is safer.  The  March 11, 2004, train bombing in Madrid suggest that the wrong type of involvement in international affairs can have disastrous consequences at home. The majority of Spaniards did not support the war.

Technorati tags: José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain, Jose Maria Aznar, International Herald Tribune, Victoria Burnett

Why is Turkey Still Begging for Full Membership In the EU?

In an informative, August 20, 2007, interview published in Today's Zaman, Haluk Kabaalioğlu, "The new president of the Economic Development Foundation (İKV), a nongovernmental organization representing the Turkish private sector's interests regarding the European Union," says "There is no such thing as privileged membership [in the European Union]. This is in response to those advocating such a membership for Turkey in the entity, which is made of European Christian nations. Turkey has been begging for for full membership for years.

According to Wikipedia, "There are currently three official candidate countries, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey." French President Nicolas Sarkozy is a strong opponent of Turkey's entry. See "Sarkozy blocks key part of EU entry talks on Turkey."

Nevertheless, Mr. Kabaalioğlu contends that, "Turkey has achieved the customs union. The treaty establishing the European Community, the Treaty of Rome, says that the European Community is based on a customs union. The only and the natural result of the Turkey-EU relationship must be accession, and anything less than that would not be acceptable for Turkey," he declared in the Zaman interview.

It seems that Turkey still doesn't know when it's not wanted. No matter what the country does to gain acceptance, it will never be enough.

To read the entire interview, please see "‘Only full EU membership is acceptable'

Technorati tags: Haluk Kabaalioğlu, Today's Zaman, European Union, Economic Development Foundation

Rudolph W. Giuliani Offers Foreign Policy Ideas in 'Towards a Realistic Peace'

Rudolph W. Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City, and a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in the United States, has published his foreign policy ideas in the September/October 2007 edition of Foreign Affairs. It's called "Toward a Realistic Peace."

Thanks to Cernig over at The NewsHoggers for the tip. Also Cernig's August 14, 2007, post headlined "Rudy And the American Hegemony."

Technorati tags: Rudolph W. Giuliani, Foreign Affairs, Towards a Realistic Peace.

David Miliband Wants Foreign Policy Ideas

Pickled Politics, which bills itself as "current affairs for a progressive generation," reported August 14, 2007, that British Foreign Secretary David Miliband wants your foreign policy ideas."

Presumably he is seeking them only from inhabitants from the United Kingdom. Even if you don't live in the UK, add your two cents worth anyway.

Technorati tags: David Miliband, British Foreign Secretary, Pickled Politics

China, Taiwan and Latin America

Writes Daniel P. Erikson and Janice Chen ["a joint degree candidate at the Georgetown University Law Center and the Fletcher School for Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University" ] in an August 12, 2007, article in  Latin Business Chronicle (LBC):

China’s economic engagement with Latin America responds to the requirements of a booming Chinese economy that has been growing at nearly 10 percent per year for the past quarter century. The economic figures are impressive: in the past six years, Chinese imports from Latin America have grown more than six-fold, at a pace of some 60 percent a year, to an estimated $60 billion in 2006. China has become a major consumer of food, mineral, and other primary products from Latin America, benefiting principally the commodity-producing countries of South America—particularly Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Chile.

If you're interested in reading more, see "China, Taiwan and the Battle for Latin America." The article, according to LBC, is "an excerpt of a longer article that appeared in The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs."

Technorati tags: China, Taiwan, Latin America, Trade

ICU: Ethiopia, Somali Government Responsible for Killing Journalists

Mohamed Abdi Farah, a reporter with SomaliNet, reported August 12, 2007, that, " The defeated Islamic Courts Union [of Somalia] accused the transitional government and the Ethiopian troops in the country of being responsible for the killings of Horn Afrik media managers and other violations against the free press." See "Somalia: Government accused of journalists killings."

According to Mr. Abdi Farah, "Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, the exiled leader of ICU who now lives in Asmara, Eritrea, blamed what he called ‘the occupation forces of Ethiopia and its puppet Somali government’ for the assassinations on the media officials in Mogadishu."

He quotes Sheik Ahmed as saying:“The government in Mogadishu and Ethiopia have masterminded the killings of the owner of Horn Afrik Media Ali Iman Sharmarke and the head of Capital Voice Mahad Ahmed Elmi and they will be held into accountable.” 

Mr. Abdi Farah also reported that, "In statement posed on the Internet, the Young Islamic Movement said they were not involved in the acts that killed the journalists."

“The intention of the young martyrs is not to kill the civilian people but our goal is to hunt down anyone belonging or has contact with the government,” the movement was quoted as saying.

Technorati tags: SomaliNet, Mohamed Abdi Farah, Islamic Courts Union, Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, Horn Afrik Media, Ali Iman Sharmarke, Capital Voice, Mahad Ahmed Elmi

U.N. Expands 'Political Role in Iraq'

On August 10, 2007, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) approved "a 12-month mandate extension for the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI)." According to UNSC, this expands "the world body’s political role in Iraq, aimed at bringing together the strife-torn country’s rival factions, gaining broader support from neighboring countries, and tackling the deepening humanitarian crisis."

I would think the U.N. would want to eschew any political role for a purely humanitarian role. I guess the August 19, 2003, truck bomb that exploded outside the United Nations Headquarters in Baghdad wasn't enough of a warning to remain neutral in Iraq.  Sergio Vieira de Mello, the U.N envoy in Iraq, was killed along with 21 staff members during a bombing  at  the Canal Hotel in Iraq. As Wikipedia notes, the UN imposed sanctions on Iraq "in 1990 following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990." They "continued until the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. They were perhaps the toughest, most comprehensive sanctions in history, and have caused much controversy over the humanitarian impact, culminating with two senior UN representatives in Iraq resigning in protest of the sanctions," according to Wikipedia. See "Iraq sanctions." Some observers say the sanctions led to thousands of Iraqi deaths and a lot of anger. Some observers even think the bombing of U.N. headquarters was payback for the sanctions.

Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, Pakistan's ambassador to the United States before he took the U.N. post in July 2004, is the current U.N. envoy. According to the August 3, 2007, edition of the New York Sun:

Although it is being urged to overhaul its mission in Iraq, the United Nations plans to extend the contract of its long-term envoy to Baghdad, Ashraf Qazi, by at least three months, several U.N. sources said. Mr. Qazi, a Pakistani national, will remain in Baghdad while a decision is being made about his replacement. For months, American and U.N. officials said Mr. Qazi would be replaced when his current contract expires this month, but Secretary-General Ban has yet to choose a new envoy.

To read the Security Council press release on the expansion of the U.N. political role in Iraq and the resolution extending UNAMI's mission, please see "Security Council expands United Nations role in Iraq as part of efforts to end strife, win regional support, tackle humanitarian crisis."

For some background on the Security Council and Iraq, see the Wikipedia article titled  "The UN Security Council and the Iraq war.

Technorati tags: U.N. Security Council, UNAMI Mission Extended

ICG's Middle East Report No 68

On August 2, 2007, the International Crisis Group (ICG) issued Middle East Report N°68 . In the executive Summary and Recommendations, ICG opines:

Hamas’s [June 2007] takeover of Gaza and [Palestinian National Authority] President [Mahmoud] Abbas’ dismissal of the national unity government and appointment of one led by Salam Fayyad amount to a watershed in the Palestinian national movement’s history. Some paint a positive picture, seeing the new government as one with which Israel can make peace. They hope that, with progress in the West Bank, stagnation in Gaza and growing pressure from ordinary Palestinians, a discredited Hamas will be forced out or forced to surrender. They are mistaken.

ICG said, "The Ramallah-based government is adopting overdue decisions to reorganise security forces and control armed militants; Israel has reciprocated in some ways; and Hamas is struggling with its victory. But as long as the Palestinian schism endures, progress is on shaky ground." I recommend the report.

Technorati tags: International Crisis Group, After Gaza, Middle East Report No. 68, Hamas, Palestinians